SOLAR-CYCLE-23 FORECAST UPDATE

Solar activity, although virtually impossible to forecast a month in a dvance, has succumbed to scientific methods on long time scales, much as climate or seasonal weather predictions are simpler than weekly wea ther forecasting. Moderately accurate solar activity forecasts on deca dal time scales now seem possible. The methods that work fall into a c lass of prediction techniques called ''precursor methods.'' We utilize solar, interplanetary field, and geomagnetic precursors to update our cycle 23 prediction to provide a mean smoothed sunspot number of 153 +/- 30 and mean smoothed F10.7 cm Radio flux of 200 +/- 30. This is co mparable to, but somewhat smaller than, the NOAA SEC panel findings th at the next solar cycle would peak at a sunspot number near 160 +/- 30 . This paper also provides some discussion relating solar and interpla netary field components to serve as a bridge in interplanetary space, helping to forge Sun-Earth connections.