Sm. Sawrie et al., CONTRIBUTION OF NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL DATA TO THE PREDICTION OF TEMPORAL-LOBE EPILEPSY SURGERY OUTCOME, Epilepsia, 39(3), 1998, pp. 319-325
Purpose: We empirically examined the contribution of neuropsychologica
l data to the prediction of postoperative seizure control relative to
base rate information in an existing series of patients undergoing ant
erior temporal lobectomy (ATL). Methods: A discriminant function predi
cting surgery out come (seizure-free vs, non-seizure-free) was compute
d separately for samples of patients with left (n = 79) and right (n =
62) temporal lobectomy (LATL, RATL). Predictor variables included 14
measures tapping five neurocognitive domains. The predicted base rates
were compared with the actual base rates in the two samples. Finally,
overall predictive accuracy was examined in optimal versus suboptimal
ATL patients. Results: The base rate of seizure freedom in the LATL g
roup was 74.70%; that in the RATL group was 66.10%. The predictive fun
ction for the LATL group achieved a hit rate of 80.00% and a positive
predictive power of 92.11%. The function for the RATL group achieved a
hit rate of 83.33% and a positive predictive power (PPP) of 89.66%. T
he overall predictive accuracy for the optimal group was only 55%, but
that in the suboptimal group was 72%. Conclusions: Neuropsychological
data used in a multivariate statistical fashion may be able to offer
an incremental increase in the prediction of postoperative seizure fre
edom relative to existing base rates of surgery success in patients wi
th ATL epilepsy. The use of neuropsychological data may be of greatest
predictive value in a population of ATL candidates with suboptimal fi
ndings with a lower base rate of postoperative seizure freedom, but ma
y actually reduce predictive accuracy in a group of ATL candidates fro
m an optimal population with an already high base rate of surgical suc
cess.