PLANNING FOR ALCOHOL-PROBLEM PREVENTION THROUGH COMPLEX-SYSTEMS MODELING - RESULTS FROM SIMCOM

This article describes a computer-based model of alcohol use and misus e intervention called SimCom. This generic model, based on the best av ailable scientific knowledge, incorporates eight interaction subsystem s. When loaded with actual data from a locality, the model has the abi lity to ''act like'' this location and can be used to forecast the fut ure effects of alternative prevention strategies. The article descibes benchmark testing of a model for the state of California, including p rojected prevention strategies for that state.