F. Palda et K. Palda, THE IMPACT OF CAMPAIGN EXPENDITURES ON POLITICAL COMPETITION IN THE FRENCH LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS OF 1993, Public choice, 94(1-2), 1998, pp. 157-174
We use regression analysis to estimate the effect that campaign money
had on the votes of challengers and incumbents in the 1993 elections t
o the French legislative assembly. Incumbent candidates can at best ex
pect to win 1.01% of the popular vote for each extra franc they spend
per registered voter in their district. Challengers can expect to win
at least twice as much as this. Simulations show that if campaign spen
ding ceilings were halved, incumbents would have gained an extra ten p
ercent of the popular vote over their closest challenging rivals. The
regression analysis also suggests that voters react negatively to cand
idates who rely heavily on their own money for their outlays and rewar
d candidates who rely on contributions from private individuals. These
results suggest that campaign spending ceilings may inhibit political
competition, and that voters may resist a candidate who relies on nar
row sources of funding.