CROSS-VALIDATION AND EXTENSION OF THE VIOLENCE RISK APPRAISAL GUIDE FOR CHILD MOLESTERS AND RAPISTS

A cross-validation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide was performed on a sample of 159 child molesters and rapists followed for an average of 10 years at risk. The performance of the instrument was also exami ned on a 10-yr followup of 288 sex offenders that included both those in the original construction sample for the VRAG and the validation sa mple. The instrument performed as well as it had in construction for p redicting violent recidivism in both the cross-validation and extended followup samples, and moderately well in the prediction of sexual rec idivism. Survival analyses showed that child molesters exhibited highe r risk of sexual recidivism than rapists or offenders against both chi ldren and adults, whereas the opposite was true for violent recidivism . As predicted, psychopathy and phallometrically determined sexual dev iance exhibited a multiplicative interaction effect on sexual recidivi sm. Proportional hazards event history analyses supported the use of t he VRAG for the prediction of violent recidivism among sex offenders.