VULNERABILITY OF THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS OF ARGENTINA TO CLIMATE-CHANGE

Agricultural production is one of the pillars of the Argentinean econo my. The contribution of this sector is expected to keep growing in the near future as a consequence of the current technological development trend. However, the projected changes in climate and in the atmospher ic concentration of CO2 in the coming years is likely to affect the pr oductivity of crops, thus causing an impact on the national economy. T his paper addresses climate change impact on the production of the mai n crops of the Argentinean pampean region by means of crop growth and development simulation models for wheat, maize and soybean included in DSSAT v. 3.0 (Dension Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, Uni v. of Hawaii, Honolulu). The weather data used includes temperature, g lobal solar radiation and precipitation values from 23 sites within th e region (current climate conditions) and the corresponding GISS gener al circulation model projections for the year 2050 (future climate) wi th CO2 concentrations of 330 and 550 ppm respectively. According to th e results obtained, a generalized increase in soybean yield and a decr ease in maize yield would occur. Wheat yield is likely to increase in the southern and the western parts of the region and decrease towards the north. Wheat and soybean production in the pampean region would in crease by 3.6 and 20.7% respectively, while maize production would be reduced by 16.5%.