PERFORMANCE OF GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH-AMERICA

Outputs from 5 general circulation models (GCMs) were analyzed in orde r to evaluate their performance for estimating future climate conditio ns in the temperate zone of southeastern South America (24 degrees to 38 degrees S and 50 degrees to 65 degrees W). The GCMs analyzed were: GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Science), GFDL-R30 and GFDL 1% (Geop hysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorologica l Office), and CCCM (Canadian Climate Center Model). The variables und er study were mean monthly temperature and mean daily precipitation. T he degree to which the models represent current climate was estimated by comparing model outputs with observed climate values for the 1951 t o 1970 period by means of a correlation analysis. The temperature valu es estimated by the models showed a good fit with the observed values. However, fitting of precipitation values was not statistically signif icant. This study was carried out within the framework of the Uruguay Climate Change Country Study as a basis for assessing the impact of cl imate change on the agricultural sector.