Dn. Yates, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE HYDROLOGIC RESOURCES OF SOUTH-AMERICA -AN ANNUAL, CONTINENTAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT, Climate research, 9(1-2), 1997, pp. 147-155
Two empirical annual runoff models which represent point estimates of
river basin discharge were used for assessing the potential impact of
climate change on runoff over South America. The first model is an ann
ual regression relationship which relates temperature and precipitatio
n to basin discharge. The second relationship is based on observed cli
matological variables and relates annual precipitation and potential e
vapotranspiration to runoff. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was
used to implement these annual models in order to assess runoff on a
0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees grid over South America using mean annual te
mperature, precipitation, and computed potential evapotranspiration im
ages. Annual changes in precipitation (percent change) and temperature
(absolute change) were gathered from 4 Global Circulation Models (GCM
s) and were used to derive new runoff estimates. Generally, these clim
ate change scenarios consistently showed increases in runoff over the
northwest and southern regions of South America, while the central and
northeast regions were a mixture of increases and decreases depending
on the GCM scenario. Comparisons with detailed, basin level models wi
th shorter time-steps are necessary to validate the use of these annua
l approaches for continental scale assessment.