AN ASSESSMENT OF INTEGRATED CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY OF EGYPT

This study used a quadratic programming sector model to assess the int egrated impacts of climate change on the agricultural economy of Egypt . Results from a dynamic global food trade model were used to update t he Egyptian sector model and included socio-economic trends and world market prices of agricultural goods, In addition, the impacts of clima te change from three bio-physical sectors - water resources, crop yiel ds, and land resources - were used as inputs to the economic model. Th e climate change scenarios generally had minor impacts on aggregated e conomic welfare (sum of Consumer and Producer Surplus or CPS), with th e largest reduction of approximately 6 percent. In some climate change scenarios, CPS slightly improved or remained unchanged. These scenari os generally benefited consumers more than producers, as world market conditions reduced the revenue generating capacity of Egyptian agricul tural exporters but decreased the costs of imports. Despite increased water availability and only moderate yield declines, several climate c hange scenarios showed producers being negatively affected by climate change. The analysis supported the hypothesis that smaller food import ing countries are at a greater risk to climate change, and impacts cou ld have as much to do with changes in world markets as with changes in local and regional biophysical systems and shifts in the national agr icultural economy.