Background An anti-inflammatory cytokine profile on whole-blood stimul
ation in vitro is associated with fatal outcome of meningococcal disea
se. We investigated whether an antiinflammatory cytokine profile in th
e circulation is associated with adverse outcome in other infectious d
iseases. Methods We enrolled 464 consecutive patients (272 men, 192 wo
men) who presented to hospital with fever (greater than or equal to 38
.2 degrees C). On admission we measured plasma interleukin 10 (IL-10)
and tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF alpha), and collected clinical a
nd microbiological data on the febrile illness, then followed up all p
atients for clinical outcome. Findings In at least 399 of the 464 pati
ents fever was caused by infection. 33 patients died after a median ho
spital stay of 11 days (interquartile range 3-20). Concentrations of I
L-10 were significantly higher in non-survivors (median 169 pg/mL [IQR
83-530]) than in survivors (median 88 pg/mL [42-235], p=0.042). When
dichotomised around the median, the mortality risk was two times highe
r in patients who had high concentrations of IL-10 than in those with
low concentrations (relative risk 2.39 [95% CI 1.07-5.33]), in patient
s with low and high concentrations of TNF alpha. In the 406 patients w
ithout haemodynamic deterioration in the first 24 h, IL-10 was higher
and TNF alpha lower in patients who died than in those who survived. T
he ratio of IL-10 to TNF alpha was higher in non-survivors (median 6.9
[3.0-21.0]) than in survivors (median 3.9 [2.0-7.0], p=0.040). This r
atio was highest in patients who died without underlying disease (medi
an 21.5 [5.0-25.0]). Age, sex, and duration of fever before admission
did not explain the differences in IL-10 and TNF alpha. Interpretation
An anti-inflammatory cytokine profile of a high ratio of IL-10 to TNF
alpha is associated with fatal outcome in febrile patients with commu
nity-acquired infection. Our findings caution against a widespread use
of proinflammatory cytokine inhibition in patients with sepsis.