ROBUST RELIABILITY OF PROJECTS WITH ACTIVITY-DURATION UNCERTAINTY

Today's projects suffer from high uncertainty, great demand for accele rated speed, and severe scarcity of attention of the project manager. At the same time, the schedules of today's projects are expected to be more reliable than ever. This paper presents a new concept for improv ing the reliability of a project schedule suffering from uncertainty i n the duration of its activities. The paper shows that the technique f or applying the new concept requires minimal information, incorporates subjective information, is simple to use, and assists in the preparat ion of project schedules at a desirable level of reliability. Specific examples demonstrate the use of the technique for: (1) calculating th e reliability of the project schedule; (2) enhancing the reliability o f the project schedule; (3) reducing project duration without diminish ing its reliability; and (4) examining how overlapping of project acti vities affects its reliability.