THE DECLINE OF SMOKING AMONG SWEDISH MEN

Background In 1987 the Association of the Nordic Cancer Registers (ANC R) predicted the incidence of lung cancer in the Nordic countries up t o the years 2000 and 2010. The predictions for Sweden can now be consi dered against recent information on smoking habits. Methods Regular, q uestion-based studies on the public's tobacco consumption are carried out by four separate institutions in Sweden. This article summarizes a nd updates the smoking habits among Swedish men in the age groups 35-5 4 and 55-70 years between 1963 and 1994, with special focus on smoking cessation. Results Between 1963 and 1994, there was a significant and continuous decrease in the prevalence of smoking among Swedish men. D uring this time ex-smoking men increased from 20% to 41%. The data rev eal a continuous, unbroken and uniform increase in smoking cessation r ates during the last 20 years, despite the small success of smoking ce ssation programmes and smelting-relapse rates of 75-80%. The explanati on of this seems to be the surprisingly high frequency of smokers who attempted to stop smoking each year (about 30%). The best success rate in smoking cessation was achieved by occasional smokers and others wi th a low cigarette consumption. Conclusions With the continuing fall i n the numbers of smelting men, a greater drop in lung cancer incidence than predicted by the ANCR in 1987 may be expected in Sweden within t he coming decade.