A METHOD FOR FORECASTING OWNER MONTHLY CONSTRUCTION PROJECT EXPENDITURE FLOW

Under the normal conditions of construction contracts, the client is o bliged to pay the contractor in monthly instalments. The amount of eac h instalment is based on the value of construction work actually produ ced in the previous month and forecasts are needed in advance of the l ikely value of these payments. A database of previously completed cont racts and payments made is available. A method for forecasting the val ue of these instalments is described. This method utilises three appro aches, termed (1) analytic, (2) synthetic, (3) hybrid, in combination with six alternative models comprising (1) Hudson, (2) Kenley-Wilson, (3) Berny-Howes, (4) cumulative logistic, (5) cumulative normal, and ( 6) cumulative lognormal. The forecasts produced by each of these are t hen subject to a cross-validation analysis to determine the best appro ach/model combination for the available database and hence forecasts f or future expenditure flows. An example is provided for an actual 27 c onstruction project database. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.