RECENT ADVANCES AND APPLICATIONS IN THE FIELD OF SHORT-TERM TRAFFIC FORECASTING

Frequent road traffic congestion is now a global issue. One of the pro posed solutions to this problem is dynamic traffic management (DTM): t he management of traffic flows, vehicles and traffic demand based on d ata representing the current and near expected traffic situation. A ke y ingredient for DTM is accurate network-wide short-term traffic forec asts. This article gives a general overview of the state of the art to gether with some recent advances and applications derived from a numbe r of field trials conducted as part of the DRIVE-II programme of the C ommission of the European Communities. The article gives an introducti on to DTM, and reviews the nature of traffic demand and supply and the traffic measurement process. The statistical methodology of short-ter m forecasts applied in transport is discussed and the articles in this issue are introduced. Mention is made of as yet unresolved problems. The article concludes that a great deal of work still remains to be do ne before the current methodology can consistently provide the desired level of accuracy needed for DTM. In the near future, more research w ill be needed and carried out, both with respect to methods already av ailable, to methods available but not yet applied and perhaps to devel op new methodology.