A MODELING APPROACH TO SIMULATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN LAKE WATER-QUALITY - PHYTOPLANKTON GROWTH-RATE ASSESSMENT

Citation
H. Hassan et al., A MODELING APPROACH TO SIMULATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN LAKE WATER-QUALITY - PHYTOPLANKTON GROWTH-RATE ASSESSMENT, Water science and technology, 37(2), 1998, pp. 177-185
Citations number
10
Categorie Soggetti
Water Resources","Environmental Sciences","Engineering, Civil
ISSN journal
02731223
Volume
37
Issue
2
Year of publication
1998
Pages
177 - 185
Database
ISI
SICI code
0273-1223(1998)37:2<177:AMATSI>2.0.ZU;2-#
Abstract
Global climate change induced by increased concentrations of greenhous e gases (especially CO2) is expected to include changes in precipitati on, wind speed, incoming solar radiation, and air temperature. These m ajor climate variables directly influence water quality in lakes by al tering changes in flow and water temperature balance. High concentrati on of nutrient enrichment and expected variability of climate can lead to periodic phytoplankton blooms and an alteration of the neutral tro phic balance. As a result, dissolved oxygen levels, with low concentra tions, can fluctuate widely and algal productivity may reach critical levels. In this work, we will present: 1) recent results of GCMs clima te scenarios downscaling project that was held at the University of De rby, UK.; 2) current/future comparative results of a new mathematical lake eutrophication model (LEM) in which output of phytoplankton growt h rate and dissolved oxygen will be presented for Suwa lake in Japan a s a case study. The model parameters were calibrated for the period of 1973-1983 and validated for the period of 1983-1993. Meteorologic, hy drologic, and lake water quality data of 1990 were selected for the as sessment analysis. Statistical relationships between seven daily meteo rological time series and three airflow indices were used as a means f or downscaling daily outputs of Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2SUL ) to the station sub-grid scale. (C) 1998 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd.