H. Hassan et al., A MODELING APPROACH TO SIMULATE IMPACT OF CLIMATE-CHANGE IN LAKE WATER-QUALITY - PHYTOPLANKTON GROWTH-RATE ASSESSMENT, Water science and technology, 37(2), 1998, pp. 177-185
Citations number
10
Categorie Soggetti
Water Resources","Environmental Sciences","Engineering, Civil
Global climate change induced by increased concentrations of greenhous
e gases (especially CO2) is expected to include changes in precipitati
on, wind speed, incoming solar radiation, and air temperature. These m
ajor climate variables directly influence water quality in lakes by al
tering changes in flow and water temperature balance. High concentrati
on of nutrient enrichment and expected variability of climate can lead
to periodic phytoplankton blooms and an alteration of the neutral tro
phic balance. As a result, dissolved oxygen levels, with low concentra
tions, can fluctuate widely and algal productivity may reach critical
levels. In this work, we will present: 1) recent results of GCMs clima
te scenarios downscaling project that was held at the University of De
rby, UK.; 2) current/future comparative results of a new mathematical
lake eutrophication model (LEM) in which output of phytoplankton growt
h rate and dissolved oxygen will be presented for Suwa lake in Japan a
s a case study. The model parameters were calibrated for the period of
1973-1983 and validated for the period of 1983-1993. Meteorologic, hy
drologic, and lake water quality data of 1990 were selected for the as
sessment analysis. Statistical relationships between seven daily meteo
rological time series and three airflow indices were used as a means f
or downscaling daily outputs of Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM2SUL
) to the station sub-grid scale. (C) 1998 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier
Science Ltd.