RECIDIVISM BASE RATES, PREDICTIONS OF SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM, AND THE SEXUAL PREDATOR COMMITMENT LAWS

Predictions of future sexual offending have been mandated by various ' 'Sexual Predator'' commitment laws, despite historical arguments that clinicians are frequently inaccurate and over-predict violence. The ba sis for those arguments has been the perspective that sexual recidivis m is a relatively rare event. Research is reviewed, however, with the finding that sexual recidivism for certain offenders is a rather commo n occurrence when the definition of recidivism is in keeping with the sex offender commitment laws. This finding is used to demonstrate that under-, rather than over-prediction of the designated violence is nec essarily today's practice. Practical and ethical implications are disc ussed. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.