PREDICTIVE MODEL OF WEAPON CARRYING AMONG URBAN HIGH-SCHOOL-STUDENTS - RESULTS AND VALIDATION

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to identify the behavioral, psychosocial, and demographic predictors of self-reported weapon carry ing among secondary school students who attend urban public schools. M ethods: Self-reported weapon carrying was measured in a schoolwide ano nymous health survey conducted in two demographically comparable high schools in 1992, in Boston, Massachusetts. Indicators of self-percepti on, depression, stressful life events, and adolescent risk behaviors o f substance use and sexual behavior, along with self-reported weapon c arrying, were measured. The students in both schools were racially het erogeneous, with the majority of about 80% from black or Hispanic back -grounds. A predictive model was developed using a forward stepwise lo gistic regression model in one inner-city high school, and tested in a second high school. Results: Self-reported lifetime weapon carrying w as 32% overall. The major predictors of weapon carrying among urban se condary school students are a combination of demographic, psychosocial , behavioral, and school-related factors. This analysis indicates cons istency in eight markers predictive of weapon carrying: lower age, mal e gender, regular marijuana use, sexual experience, having witnessed a crime, having skipped school, suicidal ideation, and having hit or '' beat up'' someone. Race parental education, and family composition wer e not significant predictors. Significant predictors of weapon carryin g were marijuana use and sexual experience, each of which was consiste ntly high in both schools. Conclusions: The model-building and validat ion presented in this study provide empirical evidence for three impor tant conclusions. First, weapon carrying is associated with multiple a nd interrelated factors which include demographic, psychosocial, behav ioral, and school-related characteristics of high school-age adolescen ts. Second, students with more risk factors are more likely to carry a weapon, suggesting that the variables are independent markers. Third, this study identified marijuana use and being sexually experienced as both highly predictive of weapon carrying. Implications of this study for prevention point to the need for comprehensive multidisciplinary services in high school that include mental health counseling as well as health education efforts aimed at behavior change. (C) Society for Adolescent Medicine, 1998.