POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTION OF THE FOREST SECTOR TO CARBON SEQUESTRATION IN FINLAND

Although Finland's forest resources have been utilized intensively, th e size of the total volume of the growing stock has increased since th e mid-1960s, and hence increasing amounts of carbon have been sequeste red by forests. The net sequestration by forests has also been substan tial when compared with the CO2 emissions resulting from energy genera tion and consumption based on fossil fuels and peat. It is also import ant, from the point of view of mitigating the effects of climate chang e, to assess how the sequestration capacity of forests may change unde r changing climatic conditions. This paper presents the results of a s tudy assessing the development of the forest and wood-product carbon b udget for Finland, based on regionally measured data, detailed dynamic models, and recent predictions concerning the changing climate. At th e starting point for the simulation (1990), nearly 90% of the forest s ector's carbon storage was found in the forest. Regular management tra nsferred carbon from forests to wood products. Under the current clima tic conditions, the simulated forest carbon storage increased 45% by t he year 2100, and the wood-product storage by 320%, as a consequence o f continuous production. Under changing climate conditions, the forest carbon storage increased, but started to decline when the temperature increase exceeded 2.5 degrees C within 40 years. (C) 1998 Published b y Elsevier Science Ltd.