THE EARLY HISTORY OF PROBABILITY FORECASTS - SOME EXTENSIONS AND CLARIFICATIONS

Heretofore it has been widely accepted that the contributions of W. E. Cooke in 1906 represented the first works related to the explicit tre atment of uncertainty in weather forecasts. Recently, however, it has come to light that at least some aspects of the rationale for quantify ing the uncertainty in forecasts were discussed prior to 1900 and that probabilities and odds were included in some weather forecasts formul ated more than 200 years ago. An effort to summarize these new histori cal insights, as well as to clarify the precise nature of the contribu tions made by various individuals to early developments is this area, appears warranted. The overall purpose of this paper is to extend and clarify the early history of probability forecasts. Highlights of the historical review include 1) various examples of the use of qualitativ e and quantitative probabilities or odds in forecasts during the eight eenth and nineteenth centuries, 2) a brief discussion in 1890 of the e conomic component of the rationale for quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts, 3) further refinement of the rationale for probability fore casts and the presentation of the results of experiments involving the formulation of quasi-probabilistic and probabilistic forecasts during the period 1900-25 (in reviewing developments during this early twent ieth century period, the noteworthy contributions made by W. E. Cooke, C. Hallenbeck, and A. K. Angstrom are described and clarified), and 4 ) a very concise overview of activities and developments in this area since 1925. The early treatment of some basic issues related to probab ility forecasts is discussed and, in some cases, compared to their tre atment in more recent rimes. These issues include 1) the underlying ra tionale for probability forecasts, 2) the feasibility of making probab ility forecasts, and 3) alternative interpretations of probability in the context of weather forecasts. A brief examination of factors relat ed to The acceptance of-and resistance to-probability forecasts in the meteorological and user communities is also included.