ASSESSMENT OF QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS

This paper reports on an assessment of quantitative precipitation fore casts (QPFs) issued by the Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center du ring the period May-June 1995. Assessment procedures involved spatial statistical procedures applied to the QPFs and Stage III calibrated ra dar-rainfall fields, and overlays of these. The QPF estimates were bro ad regional estimates that corresponded reasonably well to actual stor m characteristics over the region. Over smaller areas on the order of 10% of the region (similar to 9000 mi(2)) the character of actual stor ms departs significantly from the QPF. Embedded storm cells having hig h intensity rainfall were not well predicted by the QPF. There was ind ication that QPF skill increased with rainfall magnitude.