SHORT-TERM POLITICAL EVENTS AND BRITISH GOVERNMENT POPULARITY - DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS

We investigate the effect of non-economic variables on public opinion in Great Britain. We find that such factors have a direct impact on th e popularity of the British prime minister, but not on the popularity of the governing party. Rather, the effect of non-economic variables o n party popularity is indirect, operating through the prime minister's popularity. Thus the party's electoral fortunes are closely tied to t he prime minister's own popularity, increasing the importance of perso nality and personal factors in British politics.