Dynamic ice-flow models for 12 glaciers and ice caps have been forced
with various climate change scenarios. The volume of this sample spans
three orders of magnitude. Six climate scenarios were considered: fro
m 1990 onwards linear warming rates of 0.01, 0.02 and 0.04 K a(-1), wi
th and without concurrent changes in precipitation. The models, calibr
ated against the historic record of glacier length where possible, wer
e integrated until 2100. The differences in individual glacier respons
es are very large. No straightforward relationship between glacier siz
e and fractional change of ice volume emerges for any given climate sc
enario. The hypsometry of individual glaciers and ice caps plays an im
portant role in their response, thus making it difficult to generalize
results. For a warming rate of 0.04 K a(-1), without increase in prec
ipitation, results indicate that few glaciers would survive until 2100
. On the other hand, if the warming rate were to be limited to 0.01 K
a(-1) with an increase in precipitation of 10% per degree a warming, w
e predict that overall loss would be restricted to 10 to 20% of the 19
90 volume.