AN EXPERIMENTAL-INFECTION WITH A CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER VIRUS IN WEANER PIGS - II - THE USE OF SEROLOGICAL DATA TO ESTIMATE THE DAY OF VIRUSINTRODUCTION IN NATURAL OUTBREAKS

In a companion paper a logistic regression model of seroprevalence ove r time was developed on the basis of data obtained during an experimen tal infection of weaner pigs with classical swine fever (CSF) virus. T he model was applied to seroprevalence data from three outbreaks of th e 1993-1994 epizootic to test whether the model could predict correctl y the day of virus introduction into the herd. It was concluded that t he logistic regression model has potential as a tool to estimate in re trospect the day CSF virus was introduced into a pig herd, which in tu rn map assist in identification of risk factors implicated in the furt her spread of the disease.