THE MANAGEMENT AND TERMINATION OF PROTRACTED INTERSTATE CONFLICTS - CONCEPTUAL AND EMPIRICAL CONSIDERATIONS

This article addresses the issue of how serious and protracted interst ate conflicts can be terminated. It challenges traditional notions of conflict termination by taking a long-term perspective and by suggesti ng that effective termination involves two related processes: conflict management and conflict resolution. The article grounds its conceptio n of conflict termination in the context of an events data set on inte rstate conflict and conflict management. The authors find that most ex ogenous conflict management efforts have little impact on the terminat ion of protracted conflicts. Only when major domestic and internationa l changes reinforce these efforts can a genuine termination of the riv alry relationship that produces so many of the serious and protracted conflicts be seen.