NET HEALTH BENEFITS - A NEW FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTYIN COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS

In recent years, considerable attention has been devoted to the develo pment of statistical methods for the analysis of uncertainty in cost-e ffectiveness (CE) analysis, with a focus on situations in which the an alyst has patient-level data on the costs and health effects of altern ative interventions. To date, discussions have focused almost exclusiv ely on addressing the practical challenges involved in estimating conf idence intervals for CE ratios. However, the general approach of using confidence intervals to convey information about uncertainty around C E ratio estimates suffers from theoretical limitations that render it inappropriate in many situations. The authors present an alternative f ramework for analyzing uncertainty in the economic evaluation of healt h interventions (the ''net health benefits'' approach) that is more br oadly applicable and that avoids some problems of prior methods. This approach offers several practical and theoretical advantages over the analysis of CE ratios, is straightforward to apply, and highlights som e important principles in the theoretical underpinnings of CE analysis .