PREDICTION OF TROPICAL ATLANTIC SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE

The variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlan tic Ocean has a significant influence on the rainfall over Northeast B razil and the Sahel. The predictability of the SST fluctuations in thi s region has, therefore, been a central concern for Atlantic climate s tudies. Here we show that the north tropical Atlantic SST variability has significant predictability using statistical models at short lead times (less than or equal to 1 year), and using a coupled ocean-atmosp here model for longer-range forecasts (lead times up to about 3 years) , While the remote influence of the IndoPacific, primarily due to El N ino, has been found to enhance the predictability of SST in the north Atlantic at short lead times, local ocean-atmosphere interactions domi nate the predictable dynamics farther south, and at longer time scales .