HIV INCIDENCE IN ETHIOPIAN IMMIGRANTS TO ISRAEL

The HIV incidence in recent adult Ethiopian immigrants to Israel is es timated through the use of snapshot estimators based on percentage of CD4 progression with time since infection, whereas the preimmigration incidence experienced by this population is estimated using an epidemi c model applied to HIV prevalence data obtained from immigrants on arr ival in Israel. The snapshot estimators place incidence in adult Ethio pian immigrants in Israel between 3 and 11 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year around Ma; 1995. In contrast, the epidemic model suggests that the incidence experienced by this population before immigration was between 12 and 22 infections/1000 uninfected persons/year. Althoug h the drop in incidence postimmigration is good news, in the aggregate , we estimate that between 50 and 190 new infections have occurred ann ually in adult Ethiopians who have immigrated to Israel.