PREDICTION OF FEBRILE SEIZURES IN SIBLINGS - A PRACTICAL APPROACH

To quantify the risk of febrile seizures (FS) in relatives of children with FS and to predict the risk of FS in siblings, we calculated cumu lative risks of FS in first degree relatives of 129 children with FS. The study was conducted as a prospective follow up study of FS recurre nces at the outpatient clinic of the Sophia Children's Hospital in Rot terdam; Thirteen parents and 12 siblings had experienced FS, accountin g for a 6-year cumulative risk of 7%. The risk of FS was increased in relatives of children with recurrent FS (12%). The risk of FS in sibli ngs (10%) in our study was more than twice the average risk in a simil ar population (4%). A positive FS history in a parent, young age at on set in the proband, and recurrences in the proband were selected in a multivariable prediction model. If two or more of these risk factors w ere present, the risk of West European siblings to develop FS was 46% (hazard ratio 5.4). Conclusion The cumulative risk of FS in siblings o f children with FS is increased. The age attained risk of FS can be es timated using a practical model incorporating three readily available risk factors.