IS THERE CONVERGENCE IN PROVINCIAL SPENDING PRIORITIES

This article examines the question of whether the provinces are becomi ng increasingly similar in their total spending and in the level of sp ending devoted to particular functional areas. Using various measures of spending, we begin by briefly tracing the pattern of provincial spe nding between 1971 and 1994. We then show, using Dispersion Indexes, t hat in some areas there has been a persistent movement toward similar levels of spending and similar spending priorities, while in other are as a divergent or indeterminate pattern has been established. Of some importance is the fact that particular provinces are outliers or influ ential cases and as such have the capacity to influence significantly the degree of convergence observed. In addition, the 24-year period is not one unbroken pattern. In some cases the provinces reverse their i nitial convergent direction and become increasingly different from one another. We suggest some reasons for these patterns, including the ro le of federal-provincial fiscal relations and the impact of changing e conomic conditions.