REFORMS, THE WEATHER, AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CHINA GRAIN SECTOR

We use disaggregate county-level production data to study the effects of economic reform on China's grain production between 1980 and 1990. China's grain production area is divided into five regions based on ge ographic, agronomic, and meteorological criteria. Regional grain produ ction functions are estimated, and weather is explicitly modeled. The institutional impact of economic reform was found to explain about 38% of the production growth from 1980 to 1985. This is lower than the es timates reported in many previous studies. Regional differences in eff iciency gains from economic reform and in the effects of weather on gr ain production are found to be significant.