RELIANCE OF BRITISH TRANSPORT ON FOSSIL-FUELS - ASSOCIATED ADVERSE IMPACTS ON AIR-QUALITY

Current predictions indicate that by AD 2020, the transport sector in the UK will consume 41(+/-2)% of total national primary energy demand with 37.5(+/-2.5)% of this energy being provided by DERV. Economically recoverable indigenous reserves of petroleum and natural gas will be exhausted early next century, forcing the UK to rely heavily upon impo rts of these commodities. The forecasted increases in the latter will result in a rise in the national rate of CO2 emissions after AD 2000. It has been estimated that by 2020, approximately 675(+/-55) million t onnes of CO2 will be emitted annually in the UK, with similar to 30% o f these arising from transport. The percentage of total SO2 emissions resulting from the transport sector is also predicted to increase to 1 0% by AD 2020. The recent rise in energy demand by the transport secto r is also leading to larger emission rates of other atmospheric pollut ants in the UK. In 1992, transport was responsible for 48%, 48%, 91%, and 61% of the total national emissions of black smoke, VOCs, CO, and NOX respectively, with 47%, 46%, 90% and 53% of these respectively res ulting from road transport. The reliance of transport in the UK on the use of fossil fuels, which are a declining resource and highly pollut ing when burnt, must therefore be urgently addressed. (C) 1997 Elsevie r Science Ltd.