PRINCIPAL LAND-USE CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN EUROPE

Major changes in land use may be anticipated in Europe in the decades to come as a result of technological, socio-economic and political dev elopments as well as global environmental change. The type and effects of these changes will strongly depend on policy decisions which are g overned, amongst others, by: (i) an increasing agricultural productivi ty; (ii) an increasing realization of the need to conserve bio-diversi ty and environmental quality for current and future generations; (iii) pressure from an increasingly urban population to emphasize non-agric ultural forms of land use in terms of nature and landscape conservatio n; (iv) increasing market-driven demand for high quality produce made with environmentally friendly forms of management: and (v) increasing food demand on the world market as the world population doubles and pu rchasing powers increases, particularly in Asia. These developments oc cur now both in Eastern and Western Europe, even though historical dev elopments during the last 50 years have been strikingly different in t hese two regions Collectivization in Eastern Europe after World War II was associated with higher yields but also with unfavourable changes in land use and cropping patterns causing acidification, soil erosion, salinization and chemical pollution. The change to democracy in the l ate 1980s implied a change from an essentially quantity-to a more qual ity-oriented type of agriculture, like in Western Europe where an indu strialized agriculture had also caused environmental problems. Emphasi s is now being placed on rational land use, which includes optimizatio n of farm size and the development and implementation of economically viable crop production techniques which result in high quality produce as well as limited adverse environmental side effects. However, these ideals an far from being realized, According to some studies, the tec hnical possibilities of modern agriculture can theoretically in future provide an adequate volume of produce from only 30 to 50% of the curr ent agricultural area in western Europe. This implies potential for ot her forms of land use in the remaining land area. However, other studi es emphasizing low external input agriculture or extrapolation of hist orical trends, indicate that the current land area may be needed to pr oduce adequate food, certainly when considering the future world marke t demand, This conclusion is also supported by the fact that theoretic al production levels are often much higher than real levels, because o f various agronomic and socio-economic factors. A major challenge for the decades ahead is to avoid uncontrolled developments of land use wi th possibly adverse socio-economic and environmental effects; the latt er include the time-delayed release of harmful chemicals, currently he ld in some soils, into the environment and the enhanced emission of ra diatively active trace gases from soils to atmosphere. Controlled deve lopments yielding sustainable forms of agricultural land use in some a reas and nature development in others, is to be preferred and should i deally be based on eco-regional approaches. The authors advocate initi ation of comprehensive, exploratory studies for Europe in which sustai nable production of major land units is defined as a function of diffe rent types of land management and in which Europe is seen as part of t he world economy. Six exploratory studies are reviewed in this paper; however, none of these scenario studies has the necessary comprehensiv e character and none is based on adequate land data. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.