MODELING INTER-WARD MIGRATION IN HEREFORD AND WORCESTER - THE IMPORTANCE OF HOUSING GROWTH AND TENURE

Modelling inter-ward migration in Hereford and Worcester: the importan ce of housing growth and tenure, Reg. Studies 32, 113-132. Most migrat ions are short-distance, local-level moves, but few studies have attem pted to model the flows within a single non-metropolitan county. In th is paper, we use the 1991 Special Migration Statistics to analyse inte r-ward flows in the British county of Hereford and Worcester. New mode lling techniques developed in recent years, based on the Poisson distr ibution, are used in this research which partially overcome the under- dispersion problem resulting from modelling zero and very small flows. Various social, economic and housing variables have been selected to estimate a migration model using a step-wise approach. Analysis at thi s scale provides the potential for more detailed generalization about migration processes such as suburbanization, counterurbanization, intr a-urban mobility rural depopulation and the relationship between housi ng and demographic change at the local level. Unlike migration flows o ver long distances, which are often employment related, these flows ar e primarily motivated by residential requirements and housing type and growth are identified as key variables in the interpretation of these migration patterns.