BIMODAL SYSTEM DYNAMIC - A TECHNOLOGY-ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING APPROACH

Technology assessment and science forecasting are based on the long-te rm forecasting of important processes within complex systems. The Bimo dal System Model was developed for their modeling. The system dynamics and the system itself are based on the combined action of two forces: the evolutive intrinsic dynamics and the decisionistic formation. Evo lutively intrinsic dynamic forces emerge from two basic principles: as similation and comprehension (the basis of any individual endeavor) an d exchange and interchange (the heart of any communication and interac tion between individual people, groups, associations). These forces ar e solely induced by individual optimization of benefits related to mat erial goods and ideas. From the point of view of their emergence they are heterogeneous and chaotic and are neither globally nor centrally p lanned. Their effect in a system occurs a million-fold, however uncoor dinated. Intrinsic forces are insensitive to other effects (e.g., deci sionistic or formative) due to their million-fold, heterogenous origin . Decisionistic formative forces deploy their effect in a system when a community is conscious of being a subject and as such is capable of expressing and translating its coordinated will (decision). The decisi onistically formative forces can produce a consistent effect when they are aligned to the evolutive intrinsic forces and utilize their dynam ics in a required manner. Therefore, process-oriented priorities must be construed in the course of consensus formation, determination of ai ms and headroom evaluation, which would allow a concerted and sustaine d application of the available forces. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.