MODIFIED DELPHI METHODOLOGY FOR TECHNOLOGY-FORECASTING - CASE-STUDY OF ELECTRONICS AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN INDIA

A nationwide Delphi-based technology forecasting exercise was undertak en in India in electronics and information technology. First, scenario writings covering 10 subtechnological areas were done by a panel of e xperts based on certain guidelines provided by the Technology, Informa tion, Forecasting & Assessment Council (TIFAC). These formed the basis of framing of more than 280 Delphi questions by a set of experts. Del phi inquiry required responses to be given in numerical as well as tex t form particularly to cover specific Indian scenario and needs. About 370 experts were asked to respond. The response rate was around 35%, which was considered statistically sufficient to go ahead with the ana lysis. A computer program analyzed the responses through the combinati on of interquartile range mean, median, and mode to find out the conse nsus among the respondents on a particular question. Text-based respon ses were analyzed to propose a roadmap for India. Technology forecasts , thus done on short, medium, and longterm, were then fine tuned in a one-day seminar of experts, planners, and administrators. These were t hen debated and short listed to arrive at a recommended plan of action for implementation. The modified Delphi methodology for technology fo recasting proposed in this article is thus a combination of scenario w riting, Delphi questionnaire, and response analysis using additional w ritten inputs to develop a roadmap for India, fine tuning and short li sting through a seminar for implementation. This methodology is consid ered unique for rapidly changing technology with all pervasive applica tions like electronics and information technology aiming at sustainabl e development. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.