RELIABILITY OF MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST FOR JABALPUR REGION OF MADHYA-PRADESH

For successful utilization in agricultural - decision making, medium - range weather forecasts of rainfall and the maximum and minimum tempe ratures during 1993 and 1994 for Jabalpur were validated and their rel iability was assessed. The accuracy of forecasts was inconsistent in d ifferent years and seasons for rainfall as well as temperature. The ac curacy (%) was very high for occurrence of rainfall, although forecast ing of rainfall amount needs substantial improvement. Actual temperatu res also deviated from those forecast but this was probably due to loc al factors. Result indicated overall improvement in reliability factor of forecasts for both the elements.