UNCERTAINTY IN POPULATION-DYNAMICS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF THE ORANGE-BELLIED PARROT NEOPHEMA CHRYSOGASTER

The population dynamics of a rare and dispersed species like the Orang e-bellied Parrot Neophema chrysogaster include many uncertainties, esp ecially concerning mortality. Taking these uncertainties into account we evaluated several options for management of the Orange-bellied Parr ot habitat. Options were ranked by their effects on the viability of t he population. There was considerable variability in the resulting ran k orders. A few general features appeared to be rather stable with res pect to all forms of uncertainty considered. It was found that surviva l of birds during the winter season was more important than their repr oductive success in summer and qualitative features of the habitat, su ch as the composition of vegetation, were more important than quantita tive features such as the habitat size. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.