IS THE KOREAN ECONOMY EXPORT-DRIVEN

This paper examines the relationship between exports and real output u sing quarterly seasonally unadjusted Korean data covering the period 1 970-1995. The relationship is examined using seasonal error correction modelling, seasonal cointegration, structural time series modelling a nd causality testing. The results show that exports have a positive bu t small effect on output, and that the adjustment to the long-run equi librium relationship is rather slow. It is concluded that while export s exert a positive effect on output, the effect is not as strong as it is normally portrayed to be. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.