PREDICTORS OF STATE LEGISLATORS INTENTIONS TO VOTE FOR CIGARETTE TAX INCREASES

Background This study analyzed influences on state legislators' decisi ons about cigarette tax increase votes using a research strategy based on political science and social-psychological models. Methods. Legisl ators from three states representing a spectrum of tobacco interests p articipated in personal interviews concerned with tobacco control legi slation (n = 444). Measures of potential predictors of voting intentio n were based on the consensus model of legislative decision-making and the theory of planned behavior. Multiple logistic regression methods were used to identify social-psychological and other predictors of int ention to vote for cigarette tax increases. Results. General attitudes and norms concerning cigarette tax increases predicted legislators' i ntention to vote for cigarette tax increases, More specific predictors included perceptions of public health impact and retail sales impact of cigarette tax increases, Constituent pressure was the strongest per ceived social influence. Political party and state also were strong pr edictors of intention. Results were consistent with related research b ased on political science models. Conclusions. Legislators' votes on c igarette tax increases may be influenced by their perceptions of posit ive and negative outcomes of a cigarette tax increase and by perceived constituent pressures. This research model provides useful insights f or theory and practice and should be refined in future tobacco control research. (C) 1998 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.