WITS MEDICAL GRADUATES - WHERE ARE THEY NOW

Emigration from South Africa of professional graduates, including medi cal doctors, is thought to be substantial, but is not quantified. We h ave estimated the rate of emigration of 5294 doctors who graduated fro m the University of the Witwatersrand's medical school between 1925 an d 1993, by analysing addresses recorded in the university's Alumni Aff airs Office. In addition we did a sample survey of 200 doctors who gra duated between 1960 and 1994 to determine their domicile directly. A p revious study showed that, prior to 1975, 16% of our graduates emigrat ed. Our study shows that this proportion has increased greatly. Of tho se graduating in the 1960s, 45% are overseas, compared with 57% of the 1970s graduates, 42% of the 1980s graduates, and 35% of those graduat ing in the 1990s. Over the last 35 years, between 44.1% and 46.6% (+/- 7%, 95% C.I.) of our graduates appear to have emigrated. These medica l graduates on average account for about 0.7% (65) of the estimated an nual emigration of skilled personnel (10 000)from South Africa. Most o f our emigree medical graduates reside in the USA (41.7%) or Commonwea lth countries (45%), while 5% reside elsewhere in Africa. About 76% of those living in South Africa reside in metropolitan areas. The cost t o the country of emigration is high. We review the policy options avai lable to address this. A state-funded student loan system with a 'pay- back' component would, in our view, limit the financial cost and provi de a disincentive to emigration without restricting freedom of movemen t.