INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Negotiations toward international environmental agreements take place under uncertainty. We address the process of coalition formation in th is context. Coalitions are more likely to form among countries which a re similar. Since countries are more likely to be facing similar condi tions ex ante rather than ex post, (i.e. before the resolution of unce rtainty rather than after it), the possibility of coalition formation is enhanced the sooner the negotiations take place. The social value o f better scientific information may well be negative in such circumsta nces.