THE INSTABILITY OF PARTY IDENTIFICATION AMONG ELIGIBLE JAPANESE VOTERS - A 7-WAVE PANEL STUDY, 1993-6

This paper examines the instability of party identification among elig ible Japanese voters, using a seven-wave panel survey covering the per iod from 1993 to 1996. We found that only about a quarter of our sampl e consistently identified with the same parties, suggesting that party identification of eligible Japanese voters is very unstable. We also examined the individual characteristics influencing the stability of p arty identification and found that membership in religious organizatio ns and favourable opinions toward major pre-existing political parties (the LDP, the CGP and the JSP/SDP) have a stabilizing effect on party identification. On the other hand, favourable opinions toward new par ties and minor, pre-existing parties (the JCP and the DSP) have a dest abilizing effect on party identification. Furthermore, political dissa tisfaction, reformative ideology, and the absence of a belief in votin g as a duty have a destabilizing effect on party identification.