POPULATION TRENDS OF THE GALAPAGOS PENGUIN - IMPACTS OF EL-NINO AND LA NINA

The Galapagos Penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus) population probably has always been small and largely restricted to the islands of Fernandina and Isabela. Counts suggest the current population of Galapagos Pengui ns is likely between 4,250 and 8,500, half of what it was in the early 1970s. Population size has varied and declined probably because of su bstantial changes in oceanic conditions. Body condition as evidenced b y weight is enhanced during cold surface water conditions, La Nina, an d deteriorates when surface waters are warmed, El Nino, and under the most severe conditions, penguins starve. Analysis of a long-term data set from counts of the population suggests that the population has flu ctuated, dropping precipitously after the 1982-1983 El Nino and has si nce then been recovering very slowly. This parallels the overall warmi ng in the Pacific during the last 20 years associated with the more fr equent El Nino and less frequent La Nino events. These trends suggest that long-term global climate warming is likely to threaten the Galapa gos Penguin population particularly because the population is small an d its distribution restricted. New threats from climatic warming and i ncreasing human perturbations such as fishing, inadvertent discharge o f petroleum products, and transport of potential predators and pathoge ns to islands increase the risk of extinction.