H. Dossantos et al., RISK ANALYSIS OF CROP-ROTATION SYSTEMS WI TH TRITICALE, UNDER NO-TILLAGE, Pesquisa agropecuaria brasileira, 33(4), 1998, pp. 375-383
During five years (1987 to 1991), in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil, the effe
cts of crop rotation systems with triticale were assessed. Five system
s for triticale were studied: system I (triticale/soybean), system II
(triticale/soybean and black oats/soybean), system III (triticale/soyb
ean and common vetch/corn), system IV (triticale/soybean, common vetch
/corn, and black oats/soybean), and V (triticale/soybean, triticale/so
ybean, common vetch/corn, and black oats/soybean). In 1990, black oats
was replaced by white oats in systems II, IV, and system V. A randomi
zed complete block design with three replications was used. Risk analy
sis over that period is presented in this paper. Two types of analysis
were aplied on the net return of the systems: mean variance analysis
and risk analysis (safety-first and stochastic dominance). Identificat
ion of the best system studied through mean-variance analysis was not
feasible. Through the stochastic dominance method, the system III, dur
ing the first period (1987 to 1989), and the system II, over the secon
d period (1990 to 1991), were the best production alternatives to be o
ffered to the farmers from both profit and lower risk standpoints.