RISK ANALYSIS OF CROP-ROTATION SYSTEMS WI TH TRITICALE, UNDER NO-TILLAGE

During five years (1987 to 1991), in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil, the effe cts of crop rotation systems with triticale were assessed. Five system s for triticale were studied: system I (triticale/soybean), system II (triticale/soybean and black oats/soybean), system III (triticale/soyb ean and common vetch/corn), system IV (triticale/soybean, common vetch /corn, and black oats/soybean), and V (triticale/soybean, triticale/so ybean, common vetch/corn, and black oats/soybean). In 1990, black oats was replaced by white oats in systems II, IV, and system V. A randomi zed complete block design with three replications was used. Risk analy sis over that period is presented in this paper. Two types of analysis were aplied on the net return of the systems: mean variance analysis and risk analysis (safety-first and stochastic dominance). Identificat ion of the best system studied through mean-variance analysis was not feasible. Through the stochastic dominance method, the system III, dur ing the first period (1987 to 1989), and the system II, over the secon d period (1990 to 1991), were the best production alternatives to be o ffered to the farmers from both profit and lower risk standpoints.