PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE - THE EFFECT OF CHANGING MORTALITY INCIDENCE,AND RECOVERY RATES ON LIFE EXPECTANCY WITH VISUAL DISABILITY

Health expectancy measures incorporating mortality and morbidity may b etter determine the future needs of older people than current methods solely using mortality rates. Life expectancy with and without visual disability was calculated from two longitudinal studies of the elderly . Various scenarios of changing input transition rates were then explo red. Women had a greater probability of transition to disability. Thus , increases in incidence had a larger impact for women than for men on resulting life-years with visual disability, reducing the proportion of remaining disability-free life by 2.1%. When mortality continued to decrease but incidence increased and recovery decreased, there was an increase in life expectancy, although for women this was offset by an even greater increase in years spent with visual disability. Health e xpectancy calculated from longitudinal data may be useful in exploring potential future variations in incidence, treatment, and mortality ra tes and their effect on population health.