A PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR CHLORIDE-INGRESS AND INITIATION OF CORROSION IN REINFORCED-CONCRETE STRUCTURES

Corrosion of the reinforcement is a major problem for a large number o f reinforced concrete structures because it can lead to a substantial decrease of the load-bearing capacity. One mode of corrosion initiatio n is that the chloride content around the reinforcement exceeds a crit ical threshold value. In the present paper a statistical model by whic h the chloride content in a reinforced concrete structure can be predi cted, is developed. The model parameters are estimated on the basis of measurements. The distribution of the time to initiation of corrosion can now be estimated by traditional FORM/SORM-analysis. The model can also be used to determine optimal repair and maintenance strategies. In a number of examples these applications are illustrated. (C) 1998 E lsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.