RISK INFLUENCE ANALYSIS - A METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT OF RISK REDUCTION STRATEGIES

This article describes Risk Influence Analysis, a methodology for the identification and assessment of risk reduction strategies in large-sc ale distributed systems such as transportation systems. The approach f ocuses on the identification of risk-influencing factors, i.e. sets of relatively stable conditions influencing the risk level. Risk reducti on strategies are defined by sets of actions designed to change the st ate of risk-influencing factors. The expected effects of risk reductio n strategies are evaluated by expert judgement supported by available data for the analysis object. Quality issues concerning the relevance and trustworthiness of the Risk Influence Analysis methodology are ide ntified. The most important threats to the trustworthiness of the anal ysis are believed to be: (I) inadequate validity of expert judgements in estimating the effects of risk reduction strategies; and (2) incomp leteness of the qualitative analysis results. (C) 1998 Elsevier Scienc e Limited.