FIGHTING BATTLES, WINNING WARS

The author models warfare as a random-walk stochastic process. Rather than model war as a single-shot lottery, as is common in the literatur e, nations fight a series of battles. Nations do not defeat their foe in a single battle; rather, victory results from aggregate success ove r a series of interactions. Only by gradually reducing an opponent's c apacity to resist can a nation force victory. Yet, under many circumst ances, nations preempt defect by surrendering once the tide of war mov es against them. The author characterizes the distribution of resource s that results in conflict. Against this background the author examine s how the preferences of leaders affect the conditions under which war occurs. Because the preferences of leaders affect the pattern of conf lict, citizens' electoral choices are made contingent on the internati onal environment. Hence. the author provides a link between conflict b ehavior and domestic electoral processes.