TRANSMISSION, BARRIERS, AND CONSTRAINTS - A DYNAMIC-MODEL OF THE SPREAD OF WAR

This article offers a systemic and dynamic model of the spread of civi l and interstate war. The model is based on three components: transmis sion mechanisms, barriers, and resource constraints. Transmission mech anisms and barriers are based on our existing notions about the contag ious effects of alliances and borders. Resource constraints are design ed to capture the social welfare trade-off associated with military sp ending. Deductions from the model include a positive equilibrium value for the amount of war and the level of resources devoted to war fight ing and preparations, the finding that additional transmission mechani sms increase the equilibrium level as well as the speed at which the e quilibrium level is approached, and the conclusion that extraordinaril y high levels of war will eventually decrease. Recommendations for dec reasing a high-war equilibrium focus on the strengths of constraints r elative to barriers.