Gg. Mace et al., VALIDATION OF HYDROMETEOR OCCURRENCE PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL USING MILLIMETER-WAVE RADAR DATA, Geophysical research letters, 25(10), 1998, pp. 1645-1648
Validation of hydrometeor prediction by global models is an important
issue as it pertains to the accuracy of climate predictions. In this s
tudy we use data from a continuously operating millimeter wave radar a
t a research site in north central Oklahoma, USA to validate output fr
om the operational ECMWF forecast model. We demonstrate that the ECMWF
model shows good overall skill at predicting the vertical distributio
n of the clouds and precipitation that occurred over this site during
winter 1997. However, we also show that the model tended to predict th
e onset of deep cloud events too soon, made the layers too deep and pr
edicted dissipation somewhat later than observed.