VALIDATION OF HYDROMETEOR OCCURRENCE PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL USING MILLIMETER-WAVE RADAR DATA

Validation of hydrometeor prediction by global models is an important issue as it pertains to the accuracy of climate predictions. In this s tudy we use data from a continuously operating millimeter wave radar a t a research site in north central Oklahoma, USA to validate output fr om the operational ECMWF forecast model. We demonstrate that the ECMWF model shows good overall skill at predicting the vertical distributio n of the clouds and precipitation that occurred over this site during winter 1997. However, we also show that the model tended to predict th e onset of deep cloud events too soon, made the layers too deep and pr edicted dissipation somewhat later than observed.